Saturday, December 6, 2008

Russian Ruble: dropping...and still dropping

Russia weakened the ruble for the fourth time in a month as crude oil fell under $40 a barrel this week, according to Bloomberg.

The Kremlin has been fighting to shore up the ruble, drawing heavily on its vast foreign reserves. However its piecemeal attempts to strengthen the ruble could undermine its own efforts. This gradual approach has primed expectations of further devaluation. Companies and individuals have been converting rubles into foreign currencies, which could exacerbate the situation.

Russia is facing its most severe economic and financial crises since 1998. Window on Eurasia's Paul Goble thinks the actions of Russia's leaders are worried the situation could spark social and political unrest.

Friday, December 5, 2008

Putin rules out early Kremlin bid

Russia's Prime Minister Vladimir Putin has ruled out an early return to the Kremlin as the country's president. Putin was Russia's president until May 2008, when he was succeeded by Dmitry Medvedev.



Despite leaving the presidency, many analysts and Russians see Putin as still in charge of the country's vast territory. Russia's legislature recently lengthened the president's term to six years, a move which Western media widely saw as a precursor to Putin's return to the presidency.

Putin did not run for re-election in 2008 because the Russian constitution limits the president to serving two terms. Putin's supporters have questioned whether the limit is two terms in total or merely consecutively. If it were the latter, Putin could potentially return as Russia's president. Such a move would undoubtedly be welcomed by the public, among who Putin is widely popular.

Rest assured that until that day Putin will continue to run the Kremlin unofficially.

Sunday, November 30, 2008

Report: Abkhazia to UN: don't leave us alone with Russians

Abkhaz officials have told Western diplomats they want United Nations observers to remain in some capacity so they are not left alone with Russian troops, according to a report issued recently by the Brussels-based International Crisis Group.

The future of the current UN observer mission is uncertain. Its mandate was extended four months in early October, but Moscow wants a new mission for Abkhazia, which it recognizes as an independent country.

Georgia has cut ties with Nicaragua, the only other country to recognize Abkhazia and South Ossetia as independent countries.

Tuesday, November 25, 2008

Who fired at presidential convoy?

SEATTLE -- Both Pres. Mikheil Saakaskvili and his guest, Poland's Pres. Lech Kaczynski, have said Russia is responsible for the gunfire that their convoy came under. Russia firmly denies the allegation.

Tbilisi has declared the shots to be an act of "terrorism." (The shooting occurred near a checkpoint I reported from in October.)

There is an unconfirmed report that Russia might have orchestrated the shooting. Supposedly Kommersant has printed an admission from a Russian official, but I didn't see anything during a quick check of their website (in Russian or English).

Timeline of August war

This timeline is for the preceding post about the outbreak of the war. It was compiled from news sources and my reporting.

2008:

July: Increase in shootings between separatists and Georgian forces across South Ossetia’s de facto borders. Both sides improve military positions. Georgia and South Ossetia’s de facto government accuse each other of escalating the situation.

Aug. 1: Convoy carrying Dmitry Sanakoev, leader of Georgian-controlled South Ossetia, is attacked, injuring 5 policemen.

Aug. 1-2: Intense fighting overnight in South Ossetia leaves at least 6 dead and 22 injured on both sides. Heavier mortars are fired than previously used.

Aug. 3: Sporadic shelling and shooting continues.

Aug. 5: Increased shooting and shelling in Georgian- and separatist-controlled villages around Tskhinvali, de facto capital of South Ossetia. EU and US call for negotiations.

Aug. 6: Georgian combat troops begin moving towards front lines near Tskhinvali.

Aug. 7: Shooting and shelling continue in the morning and early afternoon. Georgian military observers are ordered to leave posts of joint Russian-Georgian peacekeeping forces.

1 PM: Part of Georgia’s National Security Council meets to discuss situation. On Sept. 15, Georgia says it had intelligence that Russians troops had illegally entered South Ossetia and Abkhazia. The Council tells Pres. Mikheil Saakashvili that a “red line” has been crossed, according to several members.

Negotiations between Georgia, South Ossetia and Russia fall apart.

7 PM: Saakashvili announces unilateral ceasefire on television.

Several Georgian-controlled villages are shelled. Russian peacekeepers say separatist-controlled village of Khetagurovo is shelled.

11:30 PM: Georgian artillery opens fire on Tskhinvali without announcing end of cease fire. Saakashvili orders military to stop Russian military units entering Georgia, suppress separatists artillery and protect civilians.

Aug. 8: Additional Russian forces begin moving into Georgia following shelling of Tskhinvali.

Morning: Georgian forces assault Tskhinvali. They control most of city by early afternoon. Russian jets bomb Georgian positions and towns.

10:30 PM: Georgian forces retreat from Tskhinvali after clashing with advance Russian troops.

Aug. 9: Russian military planes bombarded the Georgian port Poti and its military base in Senaki.

Abkhazia started a military operation against Georgia in Kodori Gorge.

Aug. 10: Russian patrols enter Gori, and pull out before city is bombarded by planes and artillery.

Aug. 11: Russian planes bomb outskirts of Tbilisi. Russian troops gain control of Gori.

Aug. 12: Russia and Georgia agree to peace plan proposed by French Pres. Nicolas Sarkozy.

Russian Pres. Dmitry Medvedev declares end of Russian peacekeeping mission in South Ossetia and Abkhazia.

Aug. 13: US humanitarian aid arrives in Tbilisi.

Aug. 15: Saakashvili signs peace plan.

Aug. 16: Medvedev signs peace plan. Russian forces enter Georgian-controlled Akhalgori District.

Ex-Monitor: Georgia's response disproportionate

TBILISI, Georgia -- The former head of a European monitoring team in Georgia says the Tbilisi government is responsible for escalating violence in the Caucasus that led to the deaths of hundreds of civilians in August.

Georgia asserts that it began shelling the South Ossetian capital of Tskhinvali after four villages under Georgian control came under attack after a cease-fire declared on Aug. 7.

Ryan Grist, head of a team of monitors for the Organization for Security and Cooperation in Europe (OSCE), said that while his team members had not visited the villages, they did not hear any shelling in the one closest to Tskhinvali.

"If there had been any provocations, the response from the Georgian side was disproportionate," Mr. Grist said.

A human rights monitor in conflict zones for 16 years, Mr. Grist resigned shortly after the August war. He would not give a reason.

Rights groups have accused both Georgia and Russia of using indiscriminate force that killed and injured civilians.

Both sides said they were aiming at specific military targets, but they used non-precision weapons.

Russia has reported 159 civilian and 64 combatant deaths including South Ossetian forces. Georgia said 220 civilians and 185 soldiers died and 2,234 were wounded, of whom 1,964 were combatants.

The London-based rights group Amnesty International said in a report released last week that "serious violations of both international human rights law and international humanitarian law were committed by all parties."

Human Rights Watch reached a similar conclusion, but has not published its report yet, said Giorgi Gogia, a researcher in its Tbilisi office.

Residents of the region were used to violence after 15 years of intermittent shelling and shooting, but neither Georgians nor Ossetians were prepared for cluster bombs, massed artillery barrages and bombing.

Georgia and Russia disagree over who started the fighting.

Georgia says it broke a self-imposed cease-fire — announced by President Mikhail Saakashvili at 7 p.m. on Aug. 7 — to respond to Russian firing on Georgian-controlled villages from South Ossetian lines.

"Russia started the shooting; Russia started the invasion," Mr. Saakashvili said in a recent interview with The Washington Times.

However, there is no definitive evidence of when Russian soldiers and armored vehicles entered South Ossetia. The Georgian government claims they arrived by midday Aug. 7. Russia says its forces entered on Aug. 8 only after Georgia shelled the South Ossetian capital.

Secretary of State Condoleezza Rice, in a Sept. 18 speech, said the fighting began "following repeated violations of the cease-fire in South Ossetia, including the shelling of Georgian villages." But she continued, "the Georgian government launched a major military operation into Tskhinvali and other areas of the separatist region."

The Georgian government has not said that Russian combat troops were in the capital, Tskhinvali, when it began its artillery barrage.

Three OSCE monitors and local staff were in their homes around Tskhinvali when the barrage began. Mr. Grist said they told him over the phone that there were explosions every 15 to 20 seconds.

At 11:40 p.m., "explosions of undistinguishable origin" buffeted Lira Tskhovrebova's house in Tskhinvali. She and her husband crouched in the corners of a hallway until the shelling stopped the next morning.

"I understood that God loves me, because my children were not with us," she said.

Alexandre Lomaia, secretary of Georgia's national security council, told a parliamentary commission that Georgian forces fired at military targets using precision weapons.

However, Amnesty International reported that Georgia used "Grad" multiple-rocket launchers and found damage a quarter-mile away from any military target.

In the week before full-fledged fighting erupted, both sides exchanged light arms and mortar fire. Small skirmishes have kept the conflict simmering since a 1992-93 war between separatists and Georgia.

Kurta, a Georgian-controlled village, was the target of mortar and light arms fire from South Ossetian lines on Aug. 6 and 7, including after the cease-fire had been announced, according to several villagers.

"What cease-fire? It was announced, but there was no cease-fire. There was still fighting," said Gocha Nabardinshvili, 29, who lived in Kurta with his parents and two brothers.

Budiko Kandelaki, a former second secretary of the Communist Party in Tskhinvali, said a mortar shell from South Ossetian lines on Aug. 3 ripped through his house in Nikosi, about half a mile south of Tskhinvali. Nikosi came under heavier shelling from South Ossetia on Aug. 6, he said.

"There'd never been anything like on the 6th before," he said.

A combined patrol by peacekeeping forces and the OSCE confirmed "isolated incidents" of mortar fire on Nikosi before the war, Mr. Grist said.

The Russian government acknowledges that it bombed military targets in Gori and Georgian villages from Aug. 8 to 11.

Kelly Uphoff, a Peace Corps volunteer living in Gori, was on the street when jets passed overhead on the morning of Aug. 8. She heard the whistle of falling bombs, and started running.

"You didn't know which way to run. You couldn't see where the bomb was going," said Ms. Uphoff, 25. She and her co-workers hid in the basement of their office.

Amnesty International found several instances of bombing of civilian areas in Gori. Ms. Uphoff said bombs hit a wedding hall, three apartment buildings and a furniture storage building for Gori University.

"Either their intelligence was off or their aim is terrible," she said. She left before the town was occupied by Russian and South Ossetian forces on Aug. 11.

Russia has recognized South Ossetia and another breakaway enclave, Abkhazia, as independent states. Russian President Dmitry Medvedev said in Washington last week that Russia would have nothing to do with Georgia while Mr. Saakashvili is in charge.

The United Nations says nearly 200,000 people were driven from their homes by the fighting. Most have returned, but Amnesty International estimates 24,000 people are still displaced and says the atmosphere along the border remains tense.

Many of these people are ethnic Georgians who had lived in South Ossetia.

In Nikosi, Mr. Kandelaki held a bottle of pills for calming his heart while he showed a reporter the battle scars of his home.

During the fighting, South Ossetian paramilitary fighters tied him to a tree in his yard, and Russian soldiers found and untied him later, he said.

"The ones in uniform were fine. Ossetian, Russians ... in a uniform, they were decent. But the ones in civilian clothes, they were different," he said.

They stole most of his possessions.

"I'd offer you wine, but I have none," he said. "Not even glasses."

Saturday, November 22, 2008

What I learned about Georgia

SEATTLE, Washington -- I returned from Tbilisi late Wednesday night. It'd been nearly two and a half months since I'd seen my wife. Needless to say, it was amazing when I saw her at the airport, waiting at the top of the stairs where arrivals come out. I sprinted up the stairs, and we threw ourselves into each others arms. It's good to be home.

My time in Georgia was incredible. It's an amazing country with wonderful people. Hopefully, one day I'll be able to visit South Ossetia and Abkhazia, and I'm sure I'll be able to say the same about them.

Here are four things I learned about Georgia:

1. The Georgian national anthem is a car horn honking;
2. Restaurants only use bendy straws;
3. Sidewalk = parking lot; and
4. The hardest thing for a visiting foreigner to do in Georgia is pay for a meal.

Georgia is one of the few places where a person can still be a 'Renaissance Man', and nearly anything is possible for a Westerner in Tbilisi.

I have a lot of material to post that I haven't gotten around to, so please stay tuned. I will also do some reporting from here (as much as possible over the phone) and regular news wrap ups concerning Georgia, the Caucasus and Russia.

For the time being I'll be keeping the blog's name - Dateline Tbilisi - and just ignore the geographical discrepancy. Space and time are relative, after all.

Please stay tuned.