Manas no más (no more)

Kyrgyzstan delivered an eviction notice for the U.S. Manas air base to the embassy in Bishkek last Friday, Feb. 20.


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The Kyrgyz parliament supported President Kurmanbek Bakiyev's announcement on Feb. 3, 2009, that the U.S. would no longer be allowed to use the airport to support operations in Afghanistan.

Saban Kardas, of the Jamestown Foundation, wonders if closing Manas will strengthen U.S.-Turkish relations?

Time for Obama to step up

It is time for President Barack Obama to get serious about stepping up operations in Afghanistan, a key promise of his campaign platform.

U.S. and coalition forces fighting Afghanistan's resurgent Taliban are in danger of losing a critical support facility -- the Manas airbase in nearby Kyrgyzstan.

Recently, Kyrgyz President Kurmanbek Bakiyev said the base would be closed. The announcement came while he was in Moscow, which said it would be giving the impoverished Central Asian country $2 billion in a credit package, greatly trumping the nearly $170 million the U.S. sends to Kyrgyzstan every year ($20 million for the lease on Manas). It isn't difficult to see who was pulling the strings.

Now is not the time for the U.S. to simply hit the "reset" button on relations with Russia, as Vice President Joe Biden suggested at the Munich international security conference.

Losing Manas will hurt U.S. and coalition forces' ability to make good on Pres. Obama's promise to American voters and Afghanistan to subdue a reinvigorated Taliban.

The base near Bishkek is a transfer point for supplies and U.S. and European troops moving into Afghanistan. U.S. and French tankers fly refueling missions to aircraft fighting in Afghanistan. Spanish transport planes also use the facility. The U.S. had planned to expand the fbase when the announcement came.

In 2008, U.S. tankers flew nearly 3,300 refueling missions to over 11,400 aircraft above Afghanistan. More than 170,000 coalition personnel passed through Manas going to and coming from Afghanistan, along with 5,000 short tons of cargo, including uniforms and spare parts.

Now is not the time to let Russia buy off Kyrgyzstan.

The Pentagon has said it is negotiating with Bishkek, and a compromise is possible. Bakiyev made a pragmatic decision, and might reconsider it for more money. But the U.S. cannot think it can simply buy its way out of the problem, because it is about more than simply money.

Geography is a real factor in the matter. Find Kyrgyzstan on a globe. Russia is much closer to it than the U.S. What good can an ally half-way around the world do for a landlocked country in Russia's shadow? The U.S. showed its shortcomings this past summer when it was unable to help Georgia.

Overreach is partly to blame. As operations in Iraq are scaled back, the U.S. will recover some tactical flexibilty to respond to pressing issues. But a deeper issue is that the U.S. does not have a clear idea of its relationships with would-be allies in Russia's "Near Abroad."

Moscow knows exactly what are its expectations for its relations with those countries, and what it is prepared to do to preserve its influence in the "Near Abroad." Russia is the only country in the world that has such a clearly defined sphere of influence, which it wants the U.S. out of.

However, despite the many wrinkles in U.S.-Russian relations, the two could find common ground that would allow the U.S. to remain in Manas - counter-terrorism. It would mean the U.S. might have to condone or turn a blind eye to some of Russia's very questionable behavior classified as "counter-terrorism." And it is a longshot.

Regardless of what happens with Manas, the U.S. must a clear idea of what its goals are and what it is prepared to do to achieve those goals whenever it engages a country that Russia considers to be in its backyard.

Russian Ruble: dropping...and still dropping

Russia weakened the ruble for the fourth time in a month as crude oil fell under $40 a barrel this week, according to Bloomberg.

The Kremlin has been fighting to shore up the ruble, drawing heavily on its vast foreign reserves. However its piecemeal attempts to strengthen the ruble could undermine its own efforts. This gradual approach has primed expectations of further devaluation. Companies and individuals have been converting rubles into foreign currencies, which could exacerbate the situation.

Russia is facing its most severe economic and financial crises since 1998. Window on Eurasia's Paul Goble thinks the actions of Russia's leaders are worried the situation could spark social and political unrest.

Putin rules out early Kremlin bid

Russia's Prime Minister Vladimir Putin has ruled out an early return to the Kremlin as the country's president. Putin was Russia's president until May 2008, when he was succeeded by Dmitry Medvedev.



Despite leaving the presidency, many analysts and Russians see Putin as still in charge of the country's vast territory. Russia's legislature recently lengthened the president's term to six years, a move which Western media widely saw as a precursor to Putin's return to the presidency.

Putin did not run for re-election in 2008 because the Russian constitution limits the president to serving two terms. Putin's supporters have questioned whether the limit is two terms in total or merely consecutively. If it were the latter, Putin could potentially return as Russia's president. Such a move would undoubtedly be welcomed by the public, among who Putin is widely popular.

Rest assured that until that day Putin will continue to run the Kremlin unofficially.

Report: Abkhazia to UN: don't leave us alone with Russians

Abkhaz officials have told Western diplomats they want United Nations observers to remain in some capacity so they are not left alone with Russian troops, according to a report issued recently by the Brussels-based International Crisis Group.

The future of the current UN observer mission is uncertain. Its mandate was extended four months in early October, but Moscow wants a new mission for Abkhazia, which it recognizes as an independent country.

Georgia has cut ties with Nicaragua, the only other country to recognize Abkhazia and South Ossetia as independent countries.

Ex-Monitor: Georgia's response disproportionate

TBILISI, Georgia -- The former head of a European monitoring team in Georgia says the Tbilisi government is responsible for escalating violence in the Caucasus that led to the deaths of hundreds of civilians in August.

Georgia asserts that it began shelling the South Ossetian capital of Tskhinvali after four villages under Georgian control came under attack after a cease-fire declared on Aug. 7.

Ryan Grist, head of a team of monitors for the Organization for Security and Cooperation in Europe (OSCE), said that while his team members had not visited the villages, they did not hear any shelling in the one closest to Tskhinvali.

"If there had been any provocations, the response from the Georgian side was disproportionate," Mr. Grist said.

A human rights monitor in conflict zones for 16 years, Mr. Grist resigned shortly after the August war. He would not give a reason.

Rights groups have accused both Georgia and Russia of using indiscriminate force that killed and injured civilians.

Both sides said they were aiming at specific military targets, but they used non-precision weapons.

Russia has reported 159 civilian and 64 combatant deaths including South Ossetian forces. Georgia said 220 civilians and 185 soldiers died and 2,234 were wounded, of whom 1,964 were combatants.

The London-based rights group Amnesty International said in a report released last week that "serious violations of both international human rights law and international humanitarian law were committed by all parties."

Human Rights Watch reached a similar conclusion, but has not published its report yet, said Giorgi Gogia, a researcher in its Tbilisi office.

Residents of the region were used to violence after 15 years of intermittent shelling and shooting, but neither Georgians nor Ossetians were prepared for cluster bombs, massed artillery barrages and bombing.

Georgia and Russia disagree over who started the fighting.

Georgia says it broke a self-imposed cease-fire — announced by President Mikhail Saakashvili at 7 p.m. on Aug. 7 — to respond to Russian firing on Georgian-controlled villages from South Ossetian lines.

"Russia started the shooting; Russia started the invasion," Mr. Saakashvili said in a recent interview with The Washington Times.

However, there is no definitive evidence of when Russian soldiers and armored vehicles entered South Ossetia. The Georgian government claims they arrived by midday Aug. 7. Russia says its forces entered on Aug. 8 only after Georgia shelled the South Ossetian capital.

Secretary of State Condoleezza Rice, in a Sept. 18 speech, said the fighting began "following repeated violations of the cease-fire in South Ossetia, including the shelling of Georgian villages." But she continued, "the Georgian government launched a major military operation into Tskhinvali and other areas of the separatist region."

The Georgian government has not said that Russian combat troops were in the capital, Tskhinvali, when it began its artillery barrage.

Three OSCE monitors and local staff were in their homes around Tskhinvali when the barrage began. Mr. Grist said they told him over the phone that there were explosions every 15 to 20 seconds.

At 11:40 p.m., "explosions of undistinguishable origin" buffeted Lira Tskhovrebova's house in Tskhinvali. She and her husband crouched in the corners of a hallway until the shelling stopped the next morning.

"I understood that God loves me, because my children were not with us," she said.

Alexandre Lomaia, secretary of Georgia's national security council, told a parliamentary commission that Georgian forces fired at military targets using precision weapons.

However, Amnesty International reported that Georgia used "Grad" multiple-rocket launchers and found damage a quarter-mile away from any military target.

In the week before full-fledged fighting erupted, both sides exchanged light arms and mortar fire. Small skirmishes have kept the conflict simmering since a 1992-93 war between separatists and Georgia.

Kurta, a Georgian-controlled village, was the target of mortar and light arms fire from South Ossetian lines on Aug. 6 and 7, including after the cease-fire had been announced, according to several villagers.

"What cease-fire? It was announced, but there was no cease-fire. There was still fighting," said Gocha Nabardinshvili, 29, who lived in Kurta with his parents and two brothers.

Budiko Kandelaki, a former second secretary of the Communist Party in Tskhinvali, said a mortar shell from South Ossetian lines on Aug. 3 ripped through his house in Nikosi, about half a mile south of Tskhinvali. Nikosi came under heavier shelling from South Ossetia on Aug. 6, he said.

"There'd never been anything like on the 6th before," he said.

A combined patrol by peacekeeping forces and the OSCE confirmed "isolated incidents" of mortar fire on Nikosi before the war, Mr. Grist said.

The Russian government acknowledges that it bombed military targets in Gori and Georgian villages from Aug. 8 to 11.

Kelly Uphoff, a Peace Corps volunteer living in Gori, was on the street when jets passed overhead on the morning of Aug. 8. She heard the whistle of falling bombs, and started running.

"You didn't know which way to run. You couldn't see where the bomb was going," said Ms. Uphoff, 25. She and her co-workers hid in the basement of their office.

Amnesty International found several instances of bombing of civilian areas in Gori. Ms. Uphoff said bombs hit a wedding hall, three apartment buildings and a furniture storage building for Gori University.

"Either their intelligence was off or their aim is terrible," she said. She left before the town was occupied by Russian and South Ossetian forces on Aug. 11.

Russia has recognized South Ossetia and another breakaway enclave, Abkhazia, as independent states. Russian President Dmitry Medvedev said in Washington last week that Russia would have nothing to do with Georgia while Mr. Saakashvili is in charge.

The United Nations says nearly 200,000 people were driven from their homes by the fighting. Most have returned, but Amnesty International estimates 24,000 people are still displaced and says the atmosphere along the border remains tense.

Many of these people are ethnic Georgians who had lived in South Ossetia.

In Nikosi, Mr. Kandelaki held a bottle of pills for calming his heart while he showed a reporter the battle scars of his home.

During the fighting, South Ossetian paramilitary fighters tied him to a tree in his yard, and Russian soldiers found and untied him later, he said.

"The ones in uniform were fine. Ossetian, Russians ... in a uniform, they were decent. But the ones in civilian clothes, they were different," he said.

They stole most of his possessions.

"I'd offer you wine, but I have none," he said. "Not even glasses."

Russia: Congrats Obama; look at our missiles

TBILISI, Georgia -- In case you haven't heard, Russia welcomed the new US president, Barack Obama, by announcing it would deploy a short-range ballistic missile, the SS-26 Iskander, in the Kalingrad region between Poland and Lithuania.

The missiles could be used "to neutralize, if necessary, the anti-ballistic missile system in Europe," said Russia's President Dmitry Medvedev, according to RIA Novosti. He was referring to the US efforts to deploy a missile shield in Poland and the Czech Republic.

Medvedev was speaking to Russia's Federal Assembly. He did not congratulate Obama in his speech, but the Kremlin said he sent a congratulatory telegram.

Here is video of the SS-26:

Georgian, Russian church leaders hold joint mass in Moscow

TBILISI, Georgia -- Leaders from the Georgian and Russian Orthodox Churches performed a joint mass in Moscow today to honor the arrival of relics.

After the war between Russia and Georgia, orthodox churches in South Ossetia asked to become part of the Russian church. However, the Russian patriarch denied the request, saying that the church didn't want to get involved in a political struggle, and was respecting the territory of the Georgian church.

Headlines on US election from Russia and Georgia

TBILISI, Georgia -- Here is a snapshot of some headlines about the US presidential election from some Russia and Georgia.

Komsomolskaya Pravda writes: Now is not the time for Obama to rest on laurels. Russia's largest newspaper notes that Obama faces more challenges than perhaps any president since either FDR or Lincoln.

RIA Novosti reports that Russian MPs more balanced US administration under Obama. The Russian news agency reports that several leading MPs expect more conciliation from the US because Obama will be focused on domestic issues. However, with the price of oil being cut in half from its former high over $140 a barrel to under $60, Russia might likely have to become more conciliatory as well.

InterPress News Agency writes: Medvedev Hopes Obama Presidency will Strengthen Ties with Russia.

Georgia's television network Rustavi2 reports on Georgian ministers comments on Obama victory. Georgian ministers are sure that the foreign policy of the United States and relations with Georgia will not change after the election of democratic candidate Obama in the U.S. presidential race.

The English-language Georgian Times writes that Prime Minister of Georgia Congratulated Americans with New President. Georgia's new Prime Minister Grigol Mgaloblishvili said he expects US-Georgian relations will be strengthened under an Obama presidency.

Russia increases military presence in Abkhazia and South Ossetia

TBILISI, Georgia -- Russia has officially ended its peacekeeping mission in Abkhazia and South Ossetia. Instead 7,400 combat troops will be based in the two regions, and Russia is repairing the defunct Soviet deep-water naval base at Ochamchire and an airfield at Gudauta, both in Abkhazia. There have been reports that Russia is turning Abkhazia's Gali district, which borders the rest of Georgia, into a military district under military law. That would make it essentially Russian territory.

The ramifications go far beyond the Caucasus, though. The move effectively buries the Conventional Forces in Europe Treaty, which Russia has been violating since the 1990s. In addition to South Ossetia and Abkhazia, Russia has stockpiled heavy weapons, equipment and troops in Transnistria (Moldova) and Armenia.

Whoever the next president is, he will have to deal with Russia's militarization of its presence in Eastern Europe and the Caucasus.

Russian soldiers ambushed in Ingushetia

TBILISI, Georgia -- At least two Russian soldiers died when their convoy was ambushed separatists in Ingushetia. A local opposition web site claimed that around 50 soldiers were killed in the attack.

Ingushetia is a Russian province in the North Caucasus. Moscow has been fighting a low-scale war with separatists there since the 1990s. Based on its experience there and especially in Chechnya, Russia perceives the Caucasus as a source of insecurity that must be controlled. Russia sees Georgia's conflict with Abkhazia and South Ossetia as further validation its attitude towards the Caucasus.

News Wrap-up

TBILISI, Georgia -- Sorry for the silence over the past few days. Here are a few recent headlines on the area.

This weekend Spain's Foreign Minister endorsed NATO membership for Georgia. During the same trip, Spain announced it would be opening an embassy in Tbilisi. Spain takes over the EU's rotating presidency in 2010.

No one can understand the present conflict between Georgia and its breakaway provinces, South Ossetia and Abkhazia, without understanding the role of the country's first post-Soviet president, extreme nationalist Zviad Gamsakhurdia. The poet-turned-politician helped the set Tbilisi and its separatist regions on a path of conflict. Although it must be noted that Gamsakhurdia had negotiated a power-sharing agreement with Abkhazia which Eduard Shevarnadze helped undermine in his bid for power in 1992. (Poets just don't make good politicians, people.)

Self-declared independent Abkhazia is struggling to create its own identity apart from Russia.

Iran has gained from conflict in Georgia, which has made Iranian pipelines more attractive to Capsian Basin energy producers, such as Azerbaijan and Kazakhstan.

Zeyno Baran, a regional analyst at the Hudson Institute, told me she estimates the US and Europe have maybe a year to get serious about starting real pipeline projects to bring Caspian Basin energy to the market before Russia -- and perhaps Iran -- have locked it up.

The war in Georgia has unleashed a rush of new patriotism in Russia. But has eroded respect for Russia in the West.

Russian President Dmitry Medvedev asked the Duma yesterday to ratify friendship treaties signed with the de facto governments in Abkhazia and South Ossetia. The treaties provide for Russian military bases on the two regions' territory. Russia and Nicaragua recognized the two areas, which declared independence after the war in August.

The Kremlin has appointed a Russian ambassador to Abkhazia, Simon Grigoliev.

US Assistant Secretary of State Daniel Fried said yesterday that Russia did not fully comply with the ceasefire agreement. He said it has not withdrawn its forces to pre-war lines, which the agreement stipulated.

Fried also said Georgia has to strengthen its democracy.

On that note, some in the opposition have called for a one-day rally outside parliament on Nov. 7, the one-year anniversary of mass pro-democracy demonstrations last year. Those demonstrations were broken up by police in riot gear.

Geneva talks break down

TBILISI, Georgia -- Talks in Geneva about the future of Georgia's two breakaway provinces, South Ossetia and Abkhazia, ended on Wednesday almost as soon as they began.

A European Union official said the talks were being delayed until Nov. 18 because of "procedural difficulties."

Russia tried to change the format of the talks several times before they began, said Georgian Foreign Minister Eka Tkeshelashvili. "It was definitely not a helpful approach."

Many experts feared that Russia would exploit divisions among European Union members and prevent any substantive resolution.

The talks already suffered a setback Tuesday when they were downgraded to consultations rather than formal negotiations.

The difficulty was finding a way for representatives from South Ossetia and Abkhazia to participate acceptable to both Moscow and Tbilisi. Russia and Georgia fought a five-day war in August over the provinces.

South Ossetia and Abkhazia delegates were allowed to sit on working groups but not as official representatives of their de facto governments. That was apparently not sufficient for Moscow.

The discussions were called for under cease-fire agreements brokered by French President Nicolas Sarkozy on behalf of the European Union (EU). The organization is co-hosting the Geneva talks along with the United Nations and Organization for Security and Cooperation in Europe.

EU members are divided over whether Russia has complied with cease-fire agreement's withdrawal requirements, which call for "the full withdrawal of Russian peacekeeping forces from the zones adjacent to South Ossetia and Abkhazia to pre-conflict lines." Russian forces left zones adjacent to the provinces but have not returned to pre-conflict lines.

Georgia wants "the full withdrawal of Russian occupiers from Georgia, the return of all refugees and the restoration of Georgia's integrity to its internationally recognized borders," Deputy Foreign Minister Grigol Vashadze told Interfax News Agency.

Zeyno Baran, director of the Hudson Institute´s Center for Eurasian Policy in Washington, expects Russia to drag out negotiations.

"If the talks are ongoing, it allows Russia to keep what it has established on the ground. And what they have on the ground benefits them," she said in a telephone interview.

Russia also benefits because the European Union has not responded to the crisis with a unified front.

"Since the war, Germany, France and Italy are all a lot more eager to get back to business as usual, and to see this Georgia business go away," Ms. Baran said. Each country stands to benefit from continuing lucrative bilateral energy and business projects with Russia.

At the same time, Sweden, Poland, the United Kingdom and Baltic states have demanded that Russia fully comply with the cease-fire agreement.

Russia's strongest weapon in Europe is energy. It supplies 50 percent of Europe's natural gas and 30 percent of its oil, which gives Moscow great leverage over individual countries.

Western Europe wants closer business and energy relations with Russia and is afraid to upset Moscow, said David Smith, a former U.S. ambassador and director of the Georgian Security Analysis Center in Tbilisi.

Lavrov says Russia won't leave Akhalgori district

Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov says Russian troops won't leave the Akhalgori district in South Ossetia.

The district has become a point of contention between Georgia and Russia, which have offered different interpretations of the September 8 ceasefire agreement and requirements for withdrawal of Russian troops.

Talks begin in Geneva this Wednesday to discuss the future of Georgia's two breakaway provinces, South Ossetia and Abkhazia.

Meet and greet with Russian soldiers still on Georgian land

ODZISI, Georgia -- Boris hasn't been to his home in Krasnodar, Russia in a year. Now, the senior lieutenant is manning a checkpoint one kilometer inside the buffer zone around South Ossetia, which the Georgia says violates the ceasefire agreement.

Boris, the post's senior lieutenant, is on the left.

Russia and Georgia have applied different interpretations of the ceasefire agreement which ended the war in August between the two countries. The agreement says Russian troops are to be withdrawn from "zones adjacent" to South Ossetia and Abkhazia back to "pre-conflict lines" -- which are inside South Ossetia -- by Oct. 10. Russia focused on the former, and said on Thursday it had complied with the agreement ahead of the deadline. Georgia has focused on the latter part of the agreement, and said on Friday that Russia was maintaining four illegal checkpoints inside its territory.

None of that really matters much to Boris. Like a good soldier, he follows orders.


"I go where I'm told to go," he said. His face is weathered, but when he smiles, you can see the boy close behind the 25 year old's face. A wide, jagged scar runs from the left corner of his mouth back across his cheek and onto his neck.

Boris and his patrol are infantry in the Russia's 58th Army. They were never part of the peacekeeping mission in South Ossetia but came here along with several thousand soldiers after war broke out. He wasn't involved in any fighting himself though.

Russia is still not letting EU monitors enter South Ossetia and Abkhazia.

Me and several other journalists/friends spent an hour or so talking to Boris and a few of his soldiers, who weren't entirely sure what to make of us. We talked about sports, what they did all day and traded cigarettes. They told us they get paid crap and live in tents.

"I haven't seen my commander for awhile," Boris said, adding that he didn't know when he'd be back around.

The Russian Army was a shambles in the 1990s, and Russian Pres. Vladimir Putin has made military reform a priority, of sorts. To hear these soldiers talk, things sounded better, but like they had a far way to go to having a proper, professional military.

Before we'd left, we'd picked up cha cha -- Georgian version of vodka -- at a market in Tbilisi, but surprisingly, none of the soldiers would toast. I figured I'd be the only one not drinking there, and instead it was only the Western and Georgian journalists who toasted Russia, Georgia, world peace and such.


Even though Georgia says Russia is still illegally occupying its territory, it is not trying to take any drastic actions, according to the Interior Ministry's spokesman, Shota Utiavishvili.

A Georgian police officer not doing anything drastic as
he looks up the road leading to the Russian checkpoint.

The Georgian police manning a checkpoint about 600 meters down the road were definitely not taking any drastic actions on Friday. Instead the ten policemen there were leaning on their cars -- AK-47s hanging down -- eating sunflower seeds and smoking. Two were digging a hole around the small building at the outpost.

EU monitors back at the Georgian checkpoint -- and a puppy.

Javier Solana of the European Union gave way to Russia's reading of the ceasefire agreement, and confirmed they met their deadline.

The EU's decision to not hold Russia to returning to pre-conflict lines of Aug. 7, could lend credence to South Ossetia's and Abkhazia's claims of independence.

However, the same day, French Foreign Minister Bernard Kouchner said in Gori that Russia had not fully complied with the ceasefire agreement. France currently holds the EU's rotating presidency.

The EU, OSCE and UN will begin talks in Geneva on Oct. 15 to discuss the future of the situation in Georgia.

Boris said he will be at his checkpoint for the foreseeable future.

"This conflict ended the way it started. What was the point?" he asked.

Like many foreigners, he is not exactly sure why the Georgians and South Ossetians are fighting. He said he can't tell much difference between the two people.

But until he hears otherwise, Boris will continue to check car trunks for bombs and the papers of people on the marshrutkas -- minibuses -- running between Tbilisi and Akhalgori.

Boris and me.

Russia accuses Georgia of terrrorist acts

TBILISI, Georgia – While Russian forces have pulled back from some of their checkpoints inside Georgian territory, Moscow has stepped up its rhetoric against Tbilisi.

Russia’s Foreign Ministry yesterday accused “certain forces in Tbilisi” of deliberately attempting to “aggravate the situation in the region and through a series of terrorists acts attempt to provoke new military actions.”

Violence in South Ossetia and Abkhazia, Georgia’s two breakaway provinces, has been increasing with the approaching Oct. 10 deadline for the withdrawal of Russian troops to their positions on Aug. 7.

A bombing on Oct. 3 in Tskhinvali, the capital of South Ossetia, killed seven Russian soldiers. Russia and Georgia accused the other of being behind the bombing.

European Union civilian monitors are observing the withdrawal of Russian troops as part of the ceasefire agreement which helped end the August war between Russia and Georgia.

The Foreign Ministry said Russia is committed to fulfilling its “interpretation” of the ceasefire agreement.

More violence along borders with breakaway provinces

TBILISI, Georgia -- Another explosion occurred along the border of Abkhazia, one of Georgia's two breakaway provinces, Interfax News Agency has reported. No one was injured.

In an unrelated incident, an Abkhaz border guard was killed in a gunfight. No other details have been released.

As the deadline for the withdrawal of Russian troops approaches, several explosions and shootings have occurred in recent days in South Ossetia and Abkhazia.

U.S. crisis clouds aid to Georgia

(The Washington Times ran my article below today, Oct. 2.)

TBILISI, Georgia -- Refugees still occupy former offices in the defunct printing building at one end of Rustaveli Avenue, the central road through Tbilisi. Drying laundry hangs in the hallway, which reeks of the smell of beef cooking and urine.

"Our village doesn't exist anymore. Everything is burned. There are no houses," said Maria Davitashvili, 48. She and her relatives fled from their home in Tamarasheni, near Tskhinvali, the capital of the Georgian breakaway province of South Ossetia, now an "independent" state recognized by Russia.

The single room that Maria Davitashvili has shared with her relatives for the past six weeks. From left to right: Davitashvili; her nephew, Giorgi; her niece's friend; her sister-in-law, Nona; and her niece, Nino.

Giorgi Davitashvili, 5.

Interior courtyard of former printing building in Tbilisi occupied by several hundred refugees.

The situation in Georgia proper has stabilized somewhat as monitors from the European Union arrived Wednesday to patrol the border with South Ossetia. Still, the plight of the Georgian refugees remains acute.

U.S. and Georgian officials are discussing how to dispense the $1 billion in assistance pledged by President Bush at a time when the U.S. financial crisis and ongoing talks of an unprecedented government bailout of the credit industry have some here wondering whether the United States will make good on its promise.

"Headline numbers are made, 1 billion euros or $1 billion for Georgia, and history will show you that those headline figures aren't really followed through," said Jonathan Puddifoot, CARE International's director for Georgia.

Nongovernmental organizations delivering humanitarian assistance to Georgia are largely dependent on foreign-aid money, which makes up 90 percent of CARE's budget in Georgia, he said.

About $430 million of aid promised by Mr. Bush will not be allocated until next year, if then.

"It's clearly a decision that the next administration and next Congress will have to implement," said Richard Greene, the State Department's deputy director of foreign assistance.

U.S. aid will focus on repairing damaged infrastructure, stabilizing the economy and responding to the ongoing humanitarian crisis, Mr. Greene said.

Both major parties' presidential nominees, Sen. Barack Obama, Illinois Democrat, and Sen. John McCain, Arizona Republican, support the pledged aid.

However, in committee hearings in early September, Bush administration officials faced criticism of their policies toward Georgia and Russia from members of Congress in both parties, who were unhappy about being asked to bail out a country that many thought had provoked a Russian invasion.

Assured by Assistant Secretary of State Daniel Fried that the U.S. had warned Georgia against attacking South Ossetia, Rep. Brad Sherman, California Democrat, asked, "Then why is Georgia going to get a huge amount of funding from the United States for damage it suffered by ignoring the loudest and most specific warnings from the United States?"

With Georgia's economy weakened from the war, the state will need assistance to continue caring for its internal refugees next year, said Nikoloz Pruidze, deputy minister of labor, health and social affairs. Now, aid is going in large part to housing the refugees before winter.

U.S. and Georgian officials are discussing the specifics, but have not made any details public.

Their silence has some watchdog groups concerned.

Closed discussions weaken independent oversight of how the money is used, said Tamuna Karosanidze, executive director of Transparency International's Georgia office.

The petty corruption that flourished under Eduard Shevardnadze's regime has been cleaned up since Mikhail Saakashvili was elected president in 2004. However, there are already widespread charges of high-level officials prospering from foreign investment and government contracts, according to Transparency International.

It is a systemic problem that the government is not addressing, Miss Karosanidze said. And it is at odds with the image Georgia has promoted in the U.S. as a country dedicated to democratic and market reforms.

Mrs. Davitashvili, the refugee from South Ossetia, is confident the money will come.

"We haven't got any money yet, but we know the U.S. is helping. They've shown it on television," she said, as she offered a visitor some apples and candy.

She has shared a room with her brother, his wife and their two children since arriving in Tbilisi in early August. Russian troops and South Ossetian militia burned their houses, she said, and she doesn't know when she will be able to return. They left their village with only what they were wearing, she said.

Like other refugees in the half-gutted printing building, she and her brother's family are making do with donated goods - a handful of dishes and spare clothes, military cots and blankets and discarded office furniture.

There is no heat in the building, and in some rooms, boards partially cover empty windows to keep out the wind and rain. Upstairs, three men found a door and were discussing the best way to put it on the entry of a room for privacy.

"They destroyed many things, and we need money to put it back together," said Mrs. Davitashvili's brother, Dato.

Tensions rise off Somalia; Russian ship en route

TBILISI, Georgia -- The New York Times has reported that a Russian crew member died on the Ukrainian ship hijacked off Somalia has died.

On Friday, Moscow said the Russian Navy would start anti-piracy patrols off Somalia and one vessel had already been dispatched. The patrols are part of Russia's new foreign policy asserting its right to armed intervention to protect Russian citizens abroad, announced by President Dmitry Medvedev.

News Wrap-up

Earlier this week Georgian President Mikheil Saakashvili declared a "second Rose Revolution" before the UN and asked the organization to oppose Russia's actions in Georgia. (As a faculty member at the Georgian Institute of Public Affairs said, this country needs democratic and market evolution, not revolution.)

Russian-expert Stephen Blank writes about Russia's new foreign policy, the central element of which is the right to intervene with force in any country to protect Russian citizens. The idea threatens global stability.

Meanwhile, the Russian Ministry of Foreign Affairs says Saakashvili is a threat to peace in the Caucasus.

Human Rights Georgia has a report that the South Ossetian militia will be further restricting access to South Ossetia, an increase in tension between the two sides.

Paul Goble at Window on Eurasia notes that Russians don't support long-term aid for Georgia's break-away provinces of South Ossetia and Abkhazia.

The Messenger, one of Tbilisi's English-language newspapers, reports that the opposition Conservative Party has called for the government to release the names of dead and missing soldiers. Many opposition people believe that the official toll of 370 dead and missing is far below reality, and that the government is concealing the true extent of how many Georgians were lost.

The New York Times reports August's war left Georgia's economy bruised but not broken. There is fear in Georgia that the war will scare away foreign investors, the driving force behind the country's economic boom.

Georgia's very fractured opposition has agreed to produce a plan for the country's survival.