Time for Obama to step up

It is time for President Barack Obama to get serious about stepping up operations in Afghanistan, a key promise of his campaign platform.

U.S. and coalition forces fighting Afghanistan's resurgent Taliban are in danger of losing a critical support facility -- the Manas airbase in nearby Kyrgyzstan.

Recently, Kyrgyz President Kurmanbek Bakiyev said the base would be closed. The announcement came while he was in Moscow, which said it would be giving the impoverished Central Asian country $2 billion in a credit package, greatly trumping the nearly $170 million the U.S. sends to Kyrgyzstan every year ($20 million for the lease on Manas). It isn't difficult to see who was pulling the strings.

Now is not the time for the U.S. to simply hit the "reset" button on relations with Russia, as Vice President Joe Biden suggested at the Munich international security conference.

Losing Manas will hurt U.S. and coalition forces' ability to make good on Pres. Obama's promise to American voters and Afghanistan to subdue a reinvigorated Taliban.

The base near Bishkek is a transfer point for supplies and U.S. and European troops moving into Afghanistan. U.S. and French tankers fly refueling missions to aircraft fighting in Afghanistan. Spanish transport planes also use the facility. The U.S. had planned to expand the fbase when the announcement came.

In 2008, U.S. tankers flew nearly 3,300 refueling missions to over 11,400 aircraft above Afghanistan. More than 170,000 coalition personnel passed through Manas going to and coming from Afghanistan, along with 5,000 short tons of cargo, including uniforms and spare parts.

Now is not the time to let Russia buy off Kyrgyzstan.

The Pentagon has said it is negotiating with Bishkek, and a compromise is possible. Bakiyev made a pragmatic decision, and might reconsider it for more money. But the U.S. cannot think it can simply buy its way out of the problem, because it is about more than simply money.

Geography is a real factor in the matter. Find Kyrgyzstan on a globe. Russia is much closer to it than the U.S. What good can an ally half-way around the world do for a landlocked country in Russia's shadow? The U.S. showed its shortcomings this past summer when it was unable to help Georgia.

Overreach is partly to blame. As operations in Iraq are scaled back, the U.S. will recover some tactical flexibilty to respond to pressing issues. But a deeper issue is that the U.S. does not have a clear idea of its relationships with would-be allies in Russia's "Near Abroad."

Moscow knows exactly what are its expectations for its relations with those countries, and what it is prepared to do to preserve its influence in the "Near Abroad." Russia is the only country in the world that has such a clearly defined sphere of influence, which it wants the U.S. out of.

However, despite the many wrinkles in U.S.-Russian relations, the two could find common ground that would allow the U.S. to remain in Manas - counter-terrorism. It would mean the U.S. might have to condone or turn a blind eye to some of Russia's very questionable behavior classified as "counter-terrorism." And it is a longshot.

Regardless of what happens with Manas, the U.S. must a clear idea of what its goals are and what it is prepared to do to achieve those goals whenever it engages a country that Russia considers to be in its backyard.

Opposition agrees on ousting Saakashvili but not much else

Twelve opposition parties called for Pres. Mikheil Saakashvili's resignation, but there appears to be little concerted momentum behind their declaration.

Civil.ge reports Davit Gamkrelidze, the leader New Rights (Conservative) Party, said all parties were united behind removing Saakashvili, but their tactics might vary.

As a friend of mine once said: "Even if all Georgia wanted to throw Misha away, how would they agree on a date?"

Nonetheless, the concensus among the opposition is that Saakashvili will be gone by year's end. However, they don't seem to know how it'll happen.

Many believe U.S. Pres. Barack Obama will help by tying aid to democratic reform.

"Maybe it will take a year or two, but I am sure these reforms (media, electoral code, law enforcement agencies, human rights) will lead to the resignation of Saakashvili, because he can't act under free political environment," Kahka Kukava, leader of the Conservative Party, wrote in an e-mail to me recently.

Also, Kukava wrote, as Obama tries to restore America's standing abroad, he will not tolerate allies who might undermine his efforts, such as Saakashvili.

Of course, this assumes that the Obama administration believes Tbilisi (and especially Saakashvili) was responsible for starting the August war.

On the other side, as talks about Nabucco come up again, the U.S. will want stability above all else in Georgia, be it from Saakashvili or someone else. Saakashvili has appointed former-PM Lado Gurgenidze to lobby for Nabucco. Gurgenidze was very successful in attracting foreign investment to Georgia.

Joshua Kucera at Eurasianet.com reports that Turkey (and Russia, of course) might be a roadblock to U.S. energy policy (including Nabucco) in the Caspian Basin.

On another note:
The recent alliance between the Republican Party and New Rights Party was somewhat surprising. Both certainly want to see Saakashvili go, but the Republicans have focused more on institutional reform while Gamkrelidze has focused more on changing the head of state. Of course, the New Rights Party has a bigger support base.

US-Georgia sign charter before Bush departs

Israel isn't the only country attending to its agenda in the waning days of the Bush administration. Georgia and the United States signed a strategic partnership charter today, reiterating U.S. support for Georgia's territorial integrity and NATO membership aspirations.

“The U.S. supports and will always support Georgia’s sovereignty and its territorial integrity, as well as its Euro-Atlantic aspirations,” Sec. of State Condoleeza Rice said, according to Civil.ge.

The charter is non-binding, but emphasizes US security and economic ties with Georgia. Georgian Foreign Minister Grigol Vashadze stressed the importance of these connections during a teleconference with international press this morning.

The military ties seem to shift U.S. support towards more traditional military aid. Prior U.S. aid had focused a great deal on training Georgian troops to serve as peacekeepers in Iraq, which was not very useful during fighting in South Ossetia in August. The charter pledges U.S. support to helping Georgia increase its self-defense capabilities to NATO standards.

Vashadze did not specify what form the aid would take. In the past, the U.S. has not given Georgia some of its most advanced defensive weapons system, such as Stinger ground-to-air missiles or Javelin anti-tank missiles.

While the charter is non-binding, Vashadze said "military cooperation [will begin] in the very, very near future."

No doubt Georgia's leadership was eager to sign the charter before U.S. Pres. George W. Bush leaves office later this month. Pres.-elect Barack Obama has indicated he is less willing than his successor to send U.S. military aid overseas.

"The charter was agreed upon with the incoming administration," Vashadze said, but he declined to specify which officials from Obama's administration were involved.

Activists entreat Obama to bring change

Opposition activists called on US President-elect Barack
Obama to press for democratic reform in Georgia.

TBILISI, Georgia -- Opposition protesters demonstrated Friday against President Mikheil Saakashvili's government and urged President-elect Barack Obama to help bring political change to Georgia.

The protests were the first since Georgia lost a war with Russia in August and occurred on the first anniversary of a similar demonstration the government dispersed with tear gas, water cannons and rubber bullets.

An estimated 10,000 demonstrators assembled outside the parliament building. Several thousand more joined a rally outside the presidential residence.

The numbers were about a fifth of those who turned out a year ago, highlighting the fractured nature of the opposition. Two opposition parties - the Christian Democrats and the Republican Party - did not participate, citing the need for postwar unity.

Those who did take part accused the Bush administration of ignoring election fixing and media suppression by the Georgian government. Several protest leaders said they hoped Mr. Obama would pressure Mr. Saakashvili into holding early elections next spring.

"In the name of the tens of thousands here, we want to congratulate the American people with the choice of Barack Obama," Conservative Party leader Kakha Kukava told the crowd outside the presidential residence. "It's a new hope for people all over the world,"

"We believe in Obama. We trust Obama," one poster declared in Georgian.

Read the rest at the Washington Times.

Russia: Congrats Obama; look at our missiles

TBILISI, Georgia -- In case you haven't heard, Russia welcomed the new US president, Barack Obama, by announcing it would deploy a short-range ballistic missile, the SS-26 Iskander, in the Kalingrad region between Poland and Lithuania.

The missiles could be used "to neutralize, if necessary, the anti-ballistic missile system in Europe," said Russia's President Dmitry Medvedev, according to RIA Novosti. He was referring to the US efforts to deploy a missile shield in Poland and the Czech Republic.

Medvedev was speaking to Russia's Federal Assembly. He did not congratulate Obama in his speech, but the Kremlin said he sent a congratulatory telegram.

Here is video of the SS-26:

Headlines on US election from Russia and Georgia

TBILISI, Georgia -- Here is a snapshot of some headlines about the US presidential election from some Russia and Georgia.

Komsomolskaya Pravda writes: Now is not the time for Obama to rest on laurels. Russia's largest newspaper notes that Obama faces more challenges than perhaps any president since either FDR or Lincoln.

RIA Novosti reports that Russian MPs more balanced US administration under Obama. The Russian news agency reports that several leading MPs expect more conciliation from the US because Obama will be focused on domestic issues. However, with the price of oil being cut in half from its former high over $140 a barrel to under $60, Russia might likely have to become more conciliatory as well.

InterPress News Agency writes: Medvedev Hopes Obama Presidency will Strengthen Ties with Russia.

Georgia's television network Rustavi2 reports on Georgian ministers comments on Obama victory. Georgian ministers are sure that the foreign policy of the United States and relations with Georgia will not change after the election of democratic candidate Obama in the U.S. presidential race.

The English-language Georgian Times writes that Prime Minister of Georgia Congratulated Americans with New President. Georgia's new Prime Minister Grigol Mgaloblishvili said he expects US-Georgian relations will be strengthened under an Obama presidency.

The American Experiment

TBILISI, Georgia -- I have never been more proud to be an American citizen than I was this morning when I watched the election returns come in. All Americans should be proud of their country today, not because of any political agenda, but because of what this election represents. This presidential election breathed new life into the ideal on which the United States founded themselves, representative democracy.

"America has showed the world what real democracy is," said my friend, Eduard Atoev.

This election is not only about President-elect Barack Obama. It is also about Gov. Sarah Palin, Sen. Hilary Clinton and even Rep. Ron Paul. The first three are obvious: the first black US president, or if he had lost, the first female US vice-president, and the first woman to be a serious candidate for her party's presidential nomination.

Paul's campaign for the GOP presidential nomination was driven by his supporters, who crafted his message nearly as much as he did. It was a decentralized campaign stripped of the traditional hierarchical power structure. It happened to some degree with every major campaign through things such as viral videos, blogs and Facebook. But Paul's campaign was the only one driven by this dynamic.

This phenomenon is here to stay and represents an opening up of the political system unparalleled in American history. In the past, campaigns set an election's agenda by picking up issues they hoped would resonate with voters. Today, US citizens have the capacity to set the agenda as well. In some ways, Paul's campaign demonstrated a greater fundamental development in American democracy than Obama, Palin and Clinton.

My first reaction to Obama's election was that it signalled the fulfillment of representative democracy in the US. But that is simply not true. It demonstrated that 232 years after it was established, America is still striving to reach the ideals it set for itself. The US has always been an imperfect democratic republic. It exists in an imperfect world in which ideals are inherently unattainable. But the great promise of the American experiment has been that we set high ideals as our goal, and have strove to reach them ever since.

American democracy is flawed, but Obama, Palin, Clinton and even Paul demonstrate that we are still trying to do better.

Democracy - foiled by snail mail, saved by e-mail

TBILISI, Georgia -- Six or seven weeks after being mailed, my absentee ballot arrived in Tbilisi today, on election day. That definitely qualifies as a day late, dollar short. Fortunately I had been able to get a ballot sent via e-mail, which I mailed through the US Embassy. (Interesting side note, domestic US postage rates apply to mail from the US Embassy to the US.)

So, I got to vote, and play my part. I felt very patriotic dropping my ballot off.

Last night a friend and I went to a hole-in-the-ground (literally) place that serves khinkali, Georgian dumplings. Two drunk brothers decided to sit down and start talking with us. (It's a very informal hole-in-the-ground place.) Turns out both were for Obama.

As the one with the wine bottle noted in broken English and Russian, Pres. George W. Bush loved Georgia, but the US and the world didn't love Bush. McCain loves Georgia, but is too closely associated with Bush to be that popular abroad. Obama will be a much more popular president, assuming he wins, and even if he doesn't love Georgia as much as McCain, his support will be much more effective.

Pretty astute observation from a sloppy drunk, I thought.

Then they showed us pictures of them "bear hunting," which mostly involved the two posing for pictures holding shotguns in front of waterfalls and other wonders of nature. No pictures of bears, though.

Economist: Georgia going strong for McCain

TBILISI, Georgia -- The Economist has an entirely unscientific look at a world election between McCain and Obama. Georgia and Macedonia are squarely for McCain, but not any other country.

Many Georgians have asked me who I think will win the election. The ones I've spoken with seem fairly evenly split between the two candidates. Of course, they are most concerned with how the outcome of the election will affect their country, especially in terms of military support and providing security from Russia. However, several are also concerned about US economic policy as it affects the world -- and Georgian -- economy. And some want the US to once again step up to its responsibilities as the world's oldest surviving democracy. One woman , Natia, told me today how disappointed she was when the US passed the Patriot Act, because it ceded citizens civil liberties to the state without providing any real check on these new powers of government.

"If young democracies see the oldest one doing this, then their leaders can say 'see, even America does it; it's no big deal'," Natia said.

Georgia's experiment with democracy and civil liberties is less than five years old, and is already come under attack from the state.

Whether or not the US wants to be, it is still the standard for democracy in Georgia -- and perhaps still in much of the world. The Bush Administration actively picked up America's role as the great crusader state of democracy, at least in rhetoric. Georgia, though, is one country that responded with action. The Rose Revolution in Nov. 2003 brought Pres. Mikheil Saakashvili to power and set the country on a pro-Western, pro-democracy and pro-free market path.

However, Saakashvili has heard power's siren song, and has found subtle ways to quiet dissent, as reported in previous posts. Many Georgians who are concerned about the future democratic development of their country feel that the US has not prodded the current government to stay committed to its reform rhetoric.

Commentary: neither candidate understands Russia

TBILISI, Georgia -- Sen. John McCain and Sen. Barack Obama further proved Friday night how little American politicians understand Russia and Georgia. They are following a time-honored tradition of American foreign policy.

Neither McCain, R-Az., nor Obama, D-Ill., displayed a nuanced understanding of Russia, its invasion of Georgia or what is at stake in US-Russian relations.

In regards to Georgia, President Mikheil Saakashvili is not the great democratic reformer both candidates make him out to be. The media is controlled here, especially television, and government elites profit from steering no-bid state contracts to businesses they have interests in. Saakashvili did not take part in any of the debates during the last presidential election, which he moved forward by nearly a year, giving the opposition little time to campaign.

Both candidates endorsed Georgia's and Ukraine's desire to join NATO, a key motivation behind Russia's invasion.

Russia perceives NATO as a direct threat to its security, and it is difficult to blame them. With no Warsaw Pact, it is not clear who NATO is aimed at, but in the 1990s the US did tell Russia it could not join the military alliance. It is hardly surprising that they would perceive its creeping towards their borders as an existential threat.

Regardless of the pros or cons of NATO expansion, American politicians who endorse it must acknowledge that it will alter the world's strategic balance, especially in the Kremlin's view.

Obama puts far too much stock in the affect of words on Russia. The country sees America as didactic and hypocritical. It blames the West for the pain and humiliation it suffered in the 1990s. It doesn't want our advice on how to become a market economy and it doesn't want moral lectures about how to behave from us. It is absolutely ludicrous to think we can, as Obama said, "explain to the Russians that you cannot be a 21st-century superpower, or power, and act like a 20th-century dictatorship." Putin's response: "watch me."

Typical of American politicians McCain sees Russia as a one-dimensional stereotype: "a KGB apparatchik-run government." Can the US be so easily summed up? Of course not, but yet Americans insist on seeing every other country in the world in the most simplistic terms. It is a tendency that has led to painful miscalculations, not least of which in Iraq.

Russia is an authoritarian state with a highly controlled political life, but most Russians sincerely support Russian Prime Minister Vladimir Putin and his puppet, President Dmitri Medvedev. Their lives are undeniably better now than in the 1990s, and their country is once again strong.

Russians respect strong authority -- vlast' -- and Putin has returned it to Russia. The country's foreign policy is influenced by the idea of vlast' -- a tradition going back to the Russian Empire, and not simply the realpolitik extension of a cynical strongman determined to hold power at all costs.

McCain's brand of foreign policy is too simplistic to be effective with Russia. The reality is the US cannot strong-arm Russia so long as the US military is over-stretched by Iraq and Afghanistan, or without returning to somehting near Cold War military levels. The country must be handled more diplomatically.

With all due respect to Henry Kissinger and other members of McCain's foreign policy team, Obama has the upperhand here -- that is assuming Madeleine Albright is only window dressing to please the Clinton people. Obama's ace is Michael McFaul, one of the leading experts on Russia, and someone who has a nuanced understanding for its motivations.

As McFaul told the House's foreign affairs committee on September 9:

"Russia’s government actions in Georgia constitute just one front of a comprehensive campaign to reassert Russian dominance in the region through both coercive and cooperative instruments.

"American foreign policy leaders have to move beyond tough talk and catchy phrases and instead articulate a smart, sustained strategy for dealing with this new Russia, a strategy that advances both our interests and values."

Russia sees US interests as diametrically opposed to its own. And the US has done nothing to counter that perception.