Report: Abkhazia to UN: don't leave us alone with Russians

Abkhaz officials have told Western diplomats they want United Nations observers to remain in some capacity so they are not left alone with Russian troops, according to a report issued recently by the Brussels-based International Crisis Group.

The future of the current UN observer mission is uncertain. Its mandate was extended four months in early October, but Moscow wants a new mission for Abkhazia, which it recognizes as an independent country.

Georgia has cut ties with Nicaragua, the only other country to recognize Abkhazia and South Ossetia as independent countries.

Russia increases military presence in Abkhazia and South Ossetia

TBILISI, Georgia -- Russia has officially ended its peacekeeping mission in Abkhazia and South Ossetia. Instead 7,400 combat troops will be based in the two regions, and Russia is repairing the defunct Soviet deep-water naval base at Ochamchire and an airfield at Gudauta, both in Abkhazia. There have been reports that Russia is turning Abkhazia's Gali district, which borders the rest of Georgia, into a military district under military law. That would make it essentially Russian territory.

The ramifications go far beyond the Caucasus, though. The move effectively buries the Conventional Forces in Europe Treaty, which Russia has been violating since the 1990s. In addition to South Ossetia and Abkhazia, Russia has stockpiled heavy weapons, equipment and troops in Transnistria (Moldova) and Armenia.

Whoever the next president is, he will have to deal with Russia's militarization of its presence in Eastern Europe and the Caucasus.

Russian soldiers ambushed in Ingushetia

TBILISI, Georgia -- At least two Russian soldiers died when their convoy was ambushed separatists in Ingushetia. A local opposition web site claimed that around 50 soldiers were killed in the attack.

Ingushetia is a Russian province in the North Caucasus. Moscow has been fighting a low-scale war with separatists there since the 1990s. Based on its experience there and especially in Chechnya, Russia perceives the Caucasus as a source of insecurity that must be controlled. Russia sees Georgia's conflict with Abkhazia and South Ossetia as further validation its attitude towards the Caucasus.

News Wrap-up

TBILISI, Georgia -- Sorry for the silence over the past few days. Here are a few recent headlines on the area.

This weekend Spain's Foreign Minister endorsed NATO membership for Georgia. During the same trip, Spain announced it would be opening an embassy in Tbilisi. Spain takes over the EU's rotating presidency in 2010.

No one can understand the present conflict between Georgia and its breakaway provinces, South Ossetia and Abkhazia, without understanding the role of the country's first post-Soviet president, extreme nationalist Zviad Gamsakhurdia. The poet-turned-politician helped the set Tbilisi and its separatist regions on a path of conflict. Although it must be noted that Gamsakhurdia had negotiated a power-sharing agreement with Abkhazia which Eduard Shevarnadze helped undermine in his bid for power in 1992. (Poets just don't make good politicians, people.)

Self-declared independent Abkhazia is struggling to create its own identity apart from Russia.

Iran has gained from conflict in Georgia, which has made Iranian pipelines more attractive to Capsian Basin energy producers, such as Azerbaijan and Kazakhstan.

Zeyno Baran, a regional analyst at the Hudson Institute, told me she estimates the US and Europe have maybe a year to get serious about starting real pipeline projects to bring Caspian Basin energy to the market before Russia -- and perhaps Iran -- have locked it up.

The war in Georgia has unleashed a rush of new patriotism in Russia. But has eroded respect for Russia in the West.

Russian President Dmitry Medvedev asked the Duma yesterday to ratify friendship treaties signed with the de facto governments in Abkhazia and South Ossetia. The treaties provide for Russian military bases on the two regions' territory. Russia and Nicaragua recognized the two areas, which declared independence after the war in August.

The Kremlin has appointed a Russian ambassador to Abkhazia, Simon Grigoliev.

US Assistant Secretary of State Daniel Fried said yesterday that Russia did not fully comply with the ceasefire agreement. He said it has not withdrawn its forces to pre-war lines, which the agreement stipulated.

Fried also said Georgia has to strengthen its democracy.

On that note, some in the opposition have called for a one-day rally outside parliament on Nov. 7, the one-year anniversary of mass pro-democracy demonstrations last year. Those demonstrations were broken up by police in riot gear.

Geneva talks break down

TBILISI, Georgia -- Talks in Geneva about the future of Georgia's two breakaway provinces, South Ossetia and Abkhazia, ended on Wednesday almost as soon as they began.

A European Union official said the talks were being delayed until Nov. 18 because of "procedural difficulties."

Russia tried to change the format of the talks several times before they began, said Georgian Foreign Minister Eka Tkeshelashvili. "It was definitely not a helpful approach."

Many experts feared that Russia would exploit divisions among European Union members and prevent any substantive resolution.

The talks already suffered a setback Tuesday when they were downgraded to consultations rather than formal negotiations.

The difficulty was finding a way for representatives from South Ossetia and Abkhazia to participate acceptable to both Moscow and Tbilisi. Russia and Georgia fought a five-day war in August over the provinces.

South Ossetia and Abkhazia delegates were allowed to sit on working groups but not as official representatives of their de facto governments. That was apparently not sufficient for Moscow.

The discussions were called for under cease-fire agreements brokered by French President Nicolas Sarkozy on behalf of the European Union (EU). The organization is co-hosting the Geneva talks along with the United Nations and Organization for Security and Cooperation in Europe.

EU members are divided over whether Russia has complied with cease-fire agreement's withdrawal requirements, which call for "the full withdrawal of Russian peacekeeping forces from the zones adjacent to South Ossetia and Abkhazia to pre-conflict lines." Russian forces left zones adjacent to the provinces but have not returned to pre-conflict lines.

Georgia wants "the full withdrawal of Russian occupiers from Georgia, the return of all refugees and the restoration of Georgia's integrity to its internationally recognized borders," Deputy Foreign Minister Grigol Vashadze told Interfax News Agency.

Zeyno Baran, director of the Hudson Institute´s Center for Eurasian Policy in Washington, expects Russia to drag out negotiations.

"If the talks are ongoing, it allows Russia to keep what it has established on the ground. And what they have on the ground benefits them," she said in a telephone interview.

Russia also benefits because the European Union has not responded to the crisis with a unified front.

"Since the war, Germany, France and Italy are all a lot more eager to get back to business as usual, and to see this Georgia business go away," Ms. Baran said. Each country stands to benefit from continuing lucrative bilateral energy and business projects with Russia.

At the same time, Sweden, Poland, the United Kingdom and Baltic states have demanded that Russia fully comply with the cease-fire agreement.

Russia's strongest weapon in Europe is energy. It supplies 50 percent of Europe's natural gas and 30 percent of its oil, which gives Moscow great leverage over individual countries.

Western Europe wants closer business and energy relations with Russia and is afraid to upset Moscow, said David Smith, a former U.S. ambassador and director of the Georgian Security Analysis Center in Tbilisi.

More violence along borders with breakaway provinces

TBILISI, Georgia -- Another explosion occurred along the border of Abkhazia, one of Georgia's two breakaway provinces, Interfax News Agency has reported. No one was injured.

In an unrelated incident, an Abkhaz border guard was killed in a gunfight. No other details have been released.

As the deadline for the withdrawal of Russian troops approaches, several explosions and shootings have occurred in recent days in South Ossetia and Abkhazia.

EU monitors begin patrolling

TBILISI, Georgia -- The EU monitors began patrols today in some areas of a buffer zone around Georgia's two separatist provinces, South Ossetia and Abkhazia.

Russia had said yesterday that it would not allow the unarmed monitors into the buffer zone - a four-mile wide zone around the provinces set up under the French-brokered ceasefire agreement. However, the AP reports monitors have entered at some checkpoints.

Russian troops are supposed to pull out of territory controlled by Georgia before August's war by October 10.

As the deadline approaches tensions have been growing between Russia and Georgia over the past weeks. Georgia's Interior Ministry reports an unmanned aerial drone crashed inside Georgian territory on Tuesday. A Georgian policeman was killed and three injured in a firefight along the Abkhaz border on Sunday, September 21. In a separate incident that same day two policeman were injured by a mine blast in the same area.

Moving forward or standing still in Georgia

TBILISI -- While most Georgians want to reintegrate South Ossetia and Abkhazia into the country, there are some who feel Georgia would be better off to cut its losses.

Undoubtedly, the country has no good options for moving forward. Since Russian peacekeepers entered the breakaway provinces in 1992, the separatists and Tbilisi have been unable -- and at times unwilling -- to find a common solution to the conflict. And Russia has not been interested in resolving the conflict either.

The day before open fighting broke out between Russian and Georgian forces, the Georgian government said President Mikheil Saakashvili had offered a ceasefire and promised wide autonomy and amnesty to separatists in South Ossetia, which Georgian military forces were already fighting.

Russia has made it clear it intends to remain in South Ossetia and Abkhazia. It plans to station 8,000 troops for the long-term in the two provinces, well over the 3,000 allowed under the 1995 peacekeeping agreement.

The AP reported yesterday that France's foreign minister, Bernard Kouchner, said no one should expect Russia to leave soon. His comments might signal a new sentiment in the European Union that Georgia is unlikely to regain South Ossetia or Abkhazia.

Recovering the areas remains the goal of the government and most Georgians, but some are not sure it is in their country's best interest.

I talked separately with two local journalists who both think the provinces are lost forever and the sooner their country comes to grips with it, the better.

Part of the Silk Road once ran through Georgia, moving goods East and West and making money for many places along the way. Today, Georgia carries gas and oil to the Black Sea from the Caspian Sea. It could also be a major conduit of overland transportation between East and West, if it can repair the railroad line crossing into Abkhazia and maintain an open border with Russia.

But that will be impossible until the present situation is resolved.

At the same time, as one of the journalists said to me, if South Ossetia and Abkhazia are granted independence, they will likely be annexed by Russia. Both depend on their northern neighbor for economic support already. The idea of Russia controlling land south of the Caucasus Mountains frightens many Georgians, even those who question the value of reintegrating the two breakaway provinces.